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作者:顺秉 来源:原创 发布日期:08-21

建军大业

NZ’s push for joint statement on China missile test falls flat amid growing Pacific Islands autonomy_我的网站

尼基塔第三季

一 |     

Foreign ministers and top diplomats of the Pacific Islands countries attend a meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in Suva, Fiji, on August 7, 2026, ahead of the full leaders meeting scheduled for September 2026 in Palau. Photo: VCG
    Foreign ministers and top diplomats of the Pacific Islands countries attend a meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in Suva, Fiji, on August 7, 2026, ahead of the full leaders meeting scheduled for September 2026 in Palau. Photo: VCG
As foreign ministers and senior representatives from Pacific nations convened in Suva for the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) to discuss key regional issues, New Zealand's foreign minister reportedly pushed to secure a joint statement condemning China's missile tests in July, however, his effort ultimately fell flat. A Chinese expert described the outcome as a clear rebuke to Canberra and Wellington's ingrained habit of speaking for the Pacific, saying the two countries must come to terms with a shifting reality: Pacific Island states are increasingly unwilling to let Australia and New Zealand dictate who their friends, foes and perceived security threats should be.
Pacific Island foreign ministers failed to agree on Friday to a joint response to China's missile launch in July, with further discussions expected at the Pacific leaders meeting at the end of August, said New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters, according to Reuters. 
According to a report from Radio New Zealand, there has not been a unanimous statement from Pacific nations about China's test-launch in July, and Peters said New Zealand had been pushing for one. Peters claimed that the Pacific missed an opportunity not to issue a joint statement soon after China's launch.
Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong said before the meeting that she hoped China took note of the "very clear response" already sent from the Pacific about the test, according to AFP.
Peters' push for a joint PIF statement on China's missile tests, together with Wong's remarks, are less about technical security concerns than an effort to turn their own anxieties about China into a regional agenda and pressure Beijing under the forum's collective banner. His description of Pacific Island countries' refusal to single out China as a "missed opportunity" also reveals little respect for their independent judgment, Chen Hong, director of the New Zealand Studies Centre, East China Normal University, told the Global Times.
The result is a clear rebuke to Canberra and Wellington's long-standing habit of arrogantly "speaking for" the Pacific, as island states are increasingly unwilling to let Australia and New Zealand decide who their friends, foes or security threats should be, said Chen Hong. 
The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy said on July 6 that one of its strategic nuclear submarines successfully launched a strategic missile toward relevant high seas of the Pacific Ocean, which landed precisely within the designated waters. China notified relevant countries in advance of the test launch, a move that demonstrates the openness and transparency of the Chinese armed forces, Chen Xi, a spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense, said at a press conference on July 7. 
Chen Hong also noted that Peters' recent China-related rhetoric has become increasingly populist and hawkish as elections approach in New Zealand. "Such an approach risks undermining New Zealand's long-standing reputation for pragmatic, independent, and rational diplomacy," Chen Hong said. 
In July, during a parliamentary debate on New Zealand's Covid-19 pandemic response, Peters, who is also leader of the populist New Zealand First party, told a Chinese-born lawmaker to "go back to your own country" while mocking his English proficiency. His remarks drew wide criticism in New Zealand.
Yet Australia and New Zealand continued to amplify missile-related issues and great-power rivalry, pushing the "China threat" narrative to the center of the regional agenda while sidelining the priorities that matter most to Pacific Island nations, said Chinese analysts. 
Chen Hong noted that for island states, the most urgent concerns are not geopolitical competition but everyday challenges: climate change, energy security, development financing, infrastructure and economic resilience. By shifting the focus from these concerns to strategic rivalry among major powers, Australia and New Zealand risk distorting the region's real priorities and undermining the aspirations of Pacific Island countries.
According to an introduction on the forum website, "The Forum's Pacific Vision is for a resilient region of peace, harmony, security, social inclusion and prosperity, so that all Pacific people can lead free, healthy, and productive lives."
At the opening of the meeting, Rick Houenipwela, foreign minister of the Solomon Islands and chair of the meeting, said that the Pacific's agenda must continue to be "conceived ⁠by the Pacific, shaped by the Pacific and only by the Pacific," according to Reuters. 
Chen Hong said Pacific Island nations have made their position clear: differences with China do not mean signing up to the strategic agendas of Australia and New Zealand. A growing number of island countries refuse to be trapped in the black-and-white binary choice of siding with either China or the West.
If Canberra and Wellington keep pushing rhetoric beyond the regional consensus, they risk undermining the very institution they claim to support. The PIF's strength lies not in issuing confrontational statements, but in preserving Pacific unity. Turning that consensus into a tool for pressuring China would erode the forum's cohesion and weaken its central role in the region, said Chen Hong.
。    新加坡币对人民币的汇率近期呈现强劲上涨趋势,已达到1:5.47的高数值。自今年4月新加坡金管局发布货币政策声明以来,新元汇率持续攀升,尤其在最近两天,汇率更是直逼5.48。图源:FACEBOOK自2008年以来,新元对人民币的汇率从未达到如此高位。今年下半年,新元对人民币的涨幅已超过4%,与此同时,新元对美元的汇率也不断上升,达到了2014年11月以来的最高水平。图源:FACEBOOK关于未来汇率走势,新加坡当地金融分析师普遍认为新元对人民币汇率将维持在较高水平。有分析师预测,六个月内新元对人民币汇率可能升至1:5.5,一年内甚至可能达到1:5.6。

二 | 然而,如果美联储采取激进降息措施,新元汇率可能出现波动,兑人民币汇率可能在5.31至5.45之间波动。全球汇率变化既提供机遇也带来挑战 巨丰投顾的投资顾问总监郭一鸣指出,从全球视角分析,美联储的降息预期增强了亚洲国家货币的升值预期,这对新加坡元产生了正面影响,在国际货币比较中,新元保持了相对强劲的地位。不过,由于中国经济的复苏势头放缓,再加上降息和宽松刺激政策的实施可能导致人民币相对走弱,这可能会推动新元对人民币汇率的上升。图源:FACEBOOK特别值得关注的是,新元对人民币的强劲表现也带动了新加坡向海外,尤其是向中国的汇款需求增长。根据Visa发布的汇款调查报告,去年有超过一半的新加坡受访者进行了海外汇款,中国、澳大利亚和马来西亚是主要的目的地。郭一鸣认为,新元的强势对人民币形成了一定压力,可能影响其国际竞争力。新元对人民币的汇率可能会继续保持在较高水平,六个月内有可能达到1新元兑换5.5元人民币,如果美联储的降息导致美元显著贬值,新元可能会经历波动,汇率可能在5.31至5.45之间波动,并有超过5.45的可能性。

三 | 官方提醒跨国汇款需通过官方渠道 过去两年,新加坡发生多起中国公民汇款回中国时账户被冻结的事件,涉嫌犯罪活动。一些在新工作的中国公民通过新加坡牛车水的几家汇款公司向中国汇款,却遭遇执法部门指出汇款过程中存在犯罪行为,导致他们在中国的银行账户资金被冻结,涉及的汇款公司包括山立汇款公司、汉生汇款公司和长城汇款公司。

四 | 图源:FACEBOOK据悉,目前至少有15名受害者从长城汇款公司获得了全额退款,而至少7名受害者从汉生汇款公司讨回了一半或60%的款项。一位不愿公开姓名的受访者表示,他们之前多次前往汇款公司要求退款,汉生汇款公司最终同意协商,并退还了一半的汇款。“对于那些资金被冻结更多的人来说,可能不愿意只拿回一半,因为损失太大了。”中国外交部也曾就新加坡客工汇款至中国遭遇资金冻结事件发表声明,称中国正密切关注事态进展,并将竭力维护在东南亚地区中国公民的合法权益。

五 | 目前,中国与新加坡警方在合作上已取得一定成果,未来双方将继续增强执法合作。总体来说,新元相对稳定,而人民币相对于美元可能有一定的贬值空间,这意味着新元与人民币之间的汇率可能还有上升的空间。但这一趋势并非固定不变,需要密切关注国际市场的动态和中国国内经济复苏的力度。

六 | 如果中国经济持续增强,新元汇率上升的空间可能会受到限制,甚至可能出现下跌的风险。

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